Will Russia invade?

And is there a coup plot?

KYIV: December 6 - Russian military forces are massing on the Ukraine border, says the American government. The US alerted allies, warned Ukraine, and threatened Russia with sanctions. This is a leading news story in the US and western-European media, which has gone so far as to publish ghoulish maps predicting how the invasion would proceed.

I only know what my few friends and students tell me, and what I read in translation from a few media sources. From what I’ve seen and heard, Ukrainians are cautiously certain there will be no invasion. For Russia building up troops is similar to mining cryptocurrency. It creates a thing of enormous value - a bargaining chip. Russian president Putin used the most recent one last spring to buy a summit with US President Biden. An actual invasion would not be as valuable.

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Here in Ukraine, this has not been leading news until recently. Presidential antics were the big stories. First, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky’s name came up in the October Pandora Papers leak, Wagnergate broke in mid-November, immediately followed by a newspaper report that “Z” had improperly used a government helicopter as transport to a party.

“Z” held an invitation-only five-hour press conference November 26. in which he alleged a Russian coup plot against him, a plot supposedly involving Ukraine’s richest citizen Rinat Akhmetov. Akhmetov, billionaire, former legislator, alleged-gangster, owns media outlets with an anti-Zelenski slant. Zelensky addressed the Rada (the legislature) December 1 with more attention-grabbing topics such as proposing direct talks with Putin and dual-citizenship for the Ukrainian diaspora.

It may not have been a politician’s typical attempt to chase scandal-headlines off the front page, but it certainly resembled one.

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The only war news has been the usual weekly, sometimes daily, casualty reports from the front. Ukrainian soldiers are killed or wounded in ones and twos, and there are no-casualty incidents, but the battle lines remain static. This suits Putin’s purpose. As long as Ukraine is at war, it is ineligible, by NATO’s rules, to become a member. It’s called a “frozen war,” and Putin maintains them also in Georgia and Moldova for the same purpose.

Putin wants sanctions to end, especially sanctions preventing the opening of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas line from Russia to Europe. He wants a Russian sphere of influence that includes Ukraine, and ultimately, he wants to bring western democracy down to his level, so low that people can no longer see it’s worth.

Ukrainian government and media analysts that I’ve read say Putin also seeks to test NATO’s and Ukraine’s response and resolve. He will exploit any weakness he finds. Putin drew some “red lines” that, he said, NATO has crossed or may cross if it continues to arm and support Ukraine.

US President Biden said he “will not accept the Kremlin’s ‘red lines’ regarding Ukraine,” as reported in the Dec. 6 Kyiv Independent. It sounds tough, but is it? The only retaliations mentioned are sanctions, not military opposition.

If it were up to me, I would give the Russians motivation to relocate the troops and equipment now on the Ukraine border. I think ringing Kaliningrad, the stand-alone Russian oblast (state) bordering Poland, Lithuania and the Baltic Sea with a reciprocal number of NATO troops and ships would be highly motivating.

I floated a similar idea last winter. Brilliant, it was! But, nobody pays any attention to me for some reason. The powers that be prefer conventional methods. They waltz, Putin breakdances.