Ray of Hope, ©2025 William L. Brown
Ekaterina Minokova, whose video reports I sometimes feature, writes from Dnipro, Ukraine,
“The weather is turning to the spring one and it means that we don't need heating anymore. One more war winter is over.
Spring takes over. Spring shows that light comes and gives the hope for victory (not surrender as russians and Americans want).
She wrote that a few days ago, when dismay was high over the apparently alignment of Russia and the US, before Ukraine and US met in Saudi Arabia, held talks, and agreed to a ceasefire deal to present to Russia.
What’s real? Is Trump really the “world’s best negotiator” who lured Russian dictator Vladimir Putin out of his snake-den by throwing him some choice morsels: restoration of diplomatic relations, a supportive vote at the UN, and an invitation to the US, and by staging an Oval Office dog-fight with Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky, mouthing Kremlin misinformation, cutting off Ukrainian aid and twisting their arms to make concessions? Did Trump pretend to take Russia’s side in order to engage them? That accomplished, has he snapped back to Ukraine’s side?
Now that Putin is snagged, will Trump snatch away the morsels and twist Putin’s arm? Will we finally see the strength in Trump’s “peace through strength?”
Or were all of those events real and the impression that Putin is now in an awkward spot just a coincidence that will evaporate the next time Trump texts?
Unfortunately, the latter seems more likely.
Trump Reversals, ©2025, William L. Brown.
What of Ukraine? Were they forced into a ceasefire deal that amounts to surrender? Did they go along with a bad deal because they know Putin will never agree to it? Have they put Russia in the concession hot-seat? Perhaps Ukraine not Trump, is the world’s best negotiator.
In her war diary, Ekaterina cites many examples of why Russia cannot be trusted. Her source is an article Beware of Deceptive Maneuver by Viktoria Lisovenko in the Ukrainian Worldwide Information Network. Beginning in 1968 with Russia’s crushing of the Prague Spring when they seized the airport with a planeload of soldiers posing as civilians. There are notorious examples of broken promises and deception from the last eleven years of war in Ukraine.
In the Ilovaisk massacre, Russian generals gave security guarantees to Ukrainian soldiers, opened a “green corridor,” and as soon as the Ukrainians were in the open, opened fire on the retreating columns with artillery.
This defeat led to the Minsk Agreements, which Russia participated in, but immediately violated. The Battle of Donetsk Airport followed in which there was another military deception.
And, six months later the Russian military gave the “word of a Russian officer” not to carry out hostile actions in exchange for access to the Donetsk airport building to evacuate the bodies of their dead Russian soldiers. And, again, “military trick”: under the guise of “honest word,” the Russians mined the supporting structures of the building, and then blew it up.
The Minsk II Agreement followed, but again it failed to stop the fighting. When Russia fully invaded in 2022, Putin declared the Minsk Agreements void.
This is why Russian promises are of no value to Ukrainians, why they insist on solid security guarantees in any future negotiation.
This issue, and the issue of an estimated 19,000 kidnapped Ukrainian children, reparations and what, if any, territorial concessions Ukraine is willing (or being forced) to take are all difficult negotiation problems to solve across a table shared by an untrustworthy enemy and a facilitator that acts more like a drunk-uncle than a diplomat.
Ekaterina is still taking donations for local aid work, by the way. You can contact her through her video channel, or contact me and I’ll help with arrangements.
Glide Bomb, ©2025 William L Brown.
Meanwhile, Russia pushes on the battlefield, desperately trying to get back the Kursk region, and bombarding Ukrainian cites. One of their most frightening weapons is the glide bomb. They repurpose old aerial bombs up to 6,600 pounds fitted with wings and satellite-aided navigation, launched from airplanes flying out of air-defense range. They are cheaper than ballistic and cruise missiles but capable of great destruction. They’ve been used on the battlefield, on infrastructure and civilian targets such as apartment buildings and hospitals.